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Value Betting in Football

July 14th, 2010

 Betting for Value

If you’re seriously interested in football betting, this is a good article for you to read.  It discusses the differences between impulse-buy mug bets, and those which actually provide value in the long run.  Remember, it’s the expected value in your bets that makes you a more profitable punter.  You don’t have to right 100% of the time, but picking the right betting categories with the right odds will earn more money than most one-off gamblers.

Value Bets

Ok, so you pretty much should understand what is meant by “value”.  In any business decision, the rewards should measure up to the risks taken. The bigger the risk, the larger the rewards you’d expect?  This makes sense no?

What this means, is that you when you’re making bets in football, you need to pick something with the right value and odds – not just something you think is bound to happen.  For instance, you might swear on your grandmother’s life that Man Utd will thrash Chelsea 3-1.  But with odds of something like 10-1 for a perfect score for instance, this is pretty bad in my opinion.  See the next topic why.

Correct Score Bets are “Mugger’s Bets”

You wouldn’t think it, but the first football betting tip is to learn that correct score bets are for mugs – that is they present bad value for what you’re paying.  Imagine the scenario for instance, where you want to bet on a score for two unpredictable teams, let’s say Bolton vs Fulham.  You might think the game will have 3 goals or less, so you bet on 2-1 Bolton (home win), which gives odds of 7-1.  This isn’t too bad you might think.  However, if you actually can’t the number of scenarios the game could end with 3 goals or less there’s 10!  This basically means you’d mathematically expect odds of 10-1 or greater if you thought the game would have less 3 goals.  This is also assuming the game can only have 3 goals or less, which of course isn’t true!  You can see then, that betting on the correct score commonly pay off in the long run.

However Correct Scores Aren’t Always Muggers Bets!

This is a little contradictory, but there are in fact qualified and intelligent times to make bet on correct scores when football betting.  This is usually when you’re betting on two teams unlikely to score and both have solid defenses.  This would definitely be true of Chelsea in the Avram Grant’s “let’s win the Premier League in 1-0’s” side.  It’s also quite true of Mourinho’s Chelsea, and a few bottom Premier League teams off the top of my head.  In this instance, betting on a result like 0-0 or 1-0 will payoff, because of the likelihood of the result.  On the other hand, betting on a team capable of scoring 4+ goals against opposition is a bad bet unless you’re receiving 20-1 or better on the correct score odds.  Good teams tend to keep clean sheets in their wins also, so remember a 1-0 bet makes far more sense than a 2-1 bet if it’s against weak opposition.

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