Archive for the ‘football betting tips’ Category

Types of Odds

August 12th, 2010 Comments off

Types of Odds

In sports betting, odds are used to determine how much money you will win per unit wagered.  True odds reflect the real probability of an event happening.  If the probability of Rooney scoring a goal in his next match is 50%, then the true odds are 2.0 or 2/1. 

It is the bookmaker’s job to set the odds for different outcomes so that it established a betting market with fixed odds for punters to wage money on.  The bookies make a profit by charging a small premium on odds known as the juice.  The juice for most uk bookmakers is around 4% – 8% however in Asian Betting this is much lower at around 2% – 5%.  Notably, the odds that a bookmaker sets will be slightly worse than the true odds, so for a coinflip scenario with true odds of 2.0, the bookie might set odds of 2.1 or 2.2.

Odds Betting Systems

In the UK and US, there are 3 main types of systems used in betting markets to display the odds: decimal odds, fractional odds and the US points or line system.

Decimal Odds:Decimal Odds are the most common type manner which odds are displayed in the UK.  They are also the most easiest to understand which is great for new players.  Decimal odds display how much a punters will win per unit waged.  For example, odds of 3.0 mean that a player stands to win £3 if he bets £1.  All you have to do to calculate your winnings is multiple the decimal odds by the stake amount.

Fractional Odds: Fractional odds are another common method used in betting markets.  Fractional odds are numbers displayed in fractions, however they can easily be converted to decimal odds by dividing the numerator by the demominator i.e. top by bottom number.  For example, 5/2 = 2.5.

US Lines or Spreads: Unlike UK/European betting markets, the US use a system very unique.  If you bet at any major US sportsbook such as Bodog, the odds will be displayed in the form of lines or spreads.  Underdog teams are given a handicap, indicated by a plus e.g. +150.  The favourites are given a negative number such as -170.  All you need to understand is that when betting on the underdogs (+), in this example, for every 100 you bet you will stand to win 150.  The number with the minus (-) indicates how much you need to wager to win $100.

You can try using both types of decimal and fractioanl odds at betfair now.

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Laying a Team

July 14th, 2010 Comments off

Laying a Bet

A great bet that can be rewarding in the short term is to bet on a football team NOT to lose.  This is great, because there can be two outcomes in the game in which you’re still rewarded – a draw or a win.  This type of best is most valuable and cleverly applied when your team’s opposition is basically just trying not to lose.  The outcome of this normally provides a weak opponent whose attacking motives are severely limited; hence your team is very unlikely to go behind or lose.  A complacent team is rarely a danger on the counter attack. 

Bet on a team not to lose.

A great type of bet is where your team doesn’t even have to win for you to make money. It’s called Double Chance, because you back two outcomes: a win and a draw. If you can identify a situation where one team is unlikely to lose, this kind of bet might be attractive to you. But keep in mind the odds will be lower than simply backing a team to win.

There are a several situations where this can be a useful bet, but one of the most common is when one team is playing for a draw. Try and pinpoint a game where one team’s aim is simply not to lose. A club employing such a negative strategy will very rarely win. Even if they succeed in drawing the match, your Double Chance bet against them is a winner.

Another important football betting tip in this category is to place such bets when the opposition has a leading goal scorer left out of the squad/injured.  If a football team is heavily reliant on one or two key figures (such as Torres at Liverpool), then the value of the bet usually becomes high – as many sports betting sites will give you better odds and not take into account the significance of this fully.

Look for Unusual Home & Away Form in Football

The most natural trend in football is for teams win more matches and points in their home games.  Of course the sports betting sites and bookies recognize this fact, which is why the odds are shorter for home wins in football betting.  This being said however, there are plenty of teams in the English football leagues (including the Premier League, Championship an Football Leagues) that go through unusual runs of form away from home, yet can’t seem to earn points at home.  This can be down to multiple reasons, such as a more closed counter attacking side away from home, or just home form pressure from disgruntled or hallowing support.  Either way, taking advantage of these scenarios provides a great tip in football betting because the bookies won’t take note of this – or will give you favorable odds to say the least.  Example of this unusual type of home/away form in football includes Wigan FC in the 2005/2006 season, where at home they manage 7 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses; where as their away form earned them 8 wins, 3 draws and just 8 losses.

Bet on the draw

The truth about football betting, is that bookies earn most their revenue (over 70% at Ladbrokes) from draws.  This is because the majority of punters in UK football bet for a sensational win or loss – this makes perfect sense as punters like to take a “stab” so to speak, or support their own team.  The truth though, you will massively reduce your losses in football betting by placing the majority of your bets on draws.  These actually carry the best relative odds in most football matches, for instance the recent Arsenal Liverpool game had 4.0 for a draw.

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Over Under Football Betting

July 14th, 2010 Comments off

 How to Capitalize on Over/Under Football Betting

In football betting a common wager is the domain of over/under betting the total number of goals in a game.  You can bet that there will be either more, or less, than a certain number of goals in the game.  This is a nice bet because regardless of the exact score line, you can still win your money back under a number of conditions or outcomes.

Imagine for instance, you bet there will be more than a total of 3 goals in a game.  This is over betting, and in games where there’s likely to be a lot of goals, such as a David vs Goliath, it’s a good bet to make.  Visa versa under betting is when you think there will be less than a certain amount of goals in the game.

How to Improve Your Winnings in Over/Under Football Betting

Just like any football betting tip, the more you know, understand and can predict the game, the higher your chance of success when betting in football.  When it comes to the category of betting over or under in football, there are some important factors to take into consideration.

Previous Encounters & Results

Looking at the history of previous fixtures involving the same teams is extremely important. Of course the same result in the past cannot definitively be replicated, but looking at how these games were played and the general attitude/style of the teams can be analyzed.  In almost every recent Chelsea vs Arsenal game the score lines have been extremely tight because of the way the teams have been set up.  In fact, a useful tip when betting for matches involving the collision of teams at the top of the league, is that there is motivation for the team to get a draw then risk fighting for the win.  This inevitably produces defense-minded teams and tactics; with small motivation going forward (this usually precludes a 4-5-1 system).   It’s also noted that when two high quality teams play each other, particularly in the Champions League for example, the two footballing sides tend to cancel each other out.  This tends to produce low goal outcomes.  When a team is winning 1-0, there biggest incentive and motivation is to defend and keep the status quo – not throw men forward to increase the lead.

Number of Goal Scorers in Both Teams 

The number of realistic goal scorers in a team should heavily affect your decision to bet on the number of goals in a game.  Some sides in the Premier League and Championship tend to be over-reliant on members of their squad for goals (Torres and Gerrard at Liverpool for example).  However when goal scorers are left out/injured from the team, there is a much higher chance of a stale mate or lack of goals.  Importantly, strikers who’ve come back into the squad from a long term absence tend not to be as sharp and successful in their first few games back in the team.  

Previous Form of Both Football Sides

The number of goals a team has scored or conceded is another massive influence of goals in a football match.  If you’re going to make an over bet on total goals in a game, make sure the team has proven capable of scoring of number of goals against similar opposition.  Arsenal are a prime example of this, because their fast-flowing football, dynamic movement and technical ability tends to rip lower league teams apart and create room for goals.

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Any Time Scorer

July 14th, 2010 Comments off

 Football Betting Tips for Any Time Scorer

Placing a football bet on an Any Time Scorer means you’re betting that they will score during the match – and you will your bet if he scores during the game regardless of how many or during what time.

Football Betting Tips on Any Time Scorer

There are some important things to take into account on these bets.  Firstly, the highly rate strikers at the teams at the top of divisions will yield low value.  Betting on Drogba, Torres (or more Rooney nowadays) won’t generally give good odds.  The real value, and more appropriate strategy for these type of bets, is to bet on someone who’s likely to score, but is not over valued by the football betting site or bookie. 

What Should I look for When Betting on Any Time Scorer

Players most likely to score in football, aside from prolific strikers, are those who take penalties, free kicks, and play the full 90 minutes of the game.  A prime example of this was Crystal Palace’s Andy Johnson, who scored 21 goals last season – with 11 from the penalty spot.  Marcus Tudgay (striker/winger at Sheffield Wednesday) scored 14 goals in 42 last season, the majority coming at home.  This means the odds of him scoring in a game were roughly 1/3, where as the betting odds you’d receive would be much higher – possibly 8-1.

This brings to mind another important factor in football betting on Any Time Scorer – Form and Home/Away.  Football teams tend to score 2/3 of their goals or more at home, and a player is much more likely to score as a result in a home fixture.  The form of a player – particularly a striker, is also incredibly important.  Strikers play off confidence, this rule is virtually true for 99% of strikers in football.  If you’re player hasn’t scored in 5 matches, he’s more unlikely to score in the next match then if he had done, but hey, that’s football for ya!  Let’s look at Wayne Rooney’s career for example.  If you analyse his stats, he’s gone through many dry periods, and then periods where he’s scored 10 goals in less matches.  For Englan in the World Cup qualifiers this was particularly true, and his international form was replicated at club level, and visa versa.

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Value Betting in Football

July 14th, 2010 Comments off

 Betting for Value

If you’re seriously interested in football betting, this is a good article for you to read.  It discusses the differences between impulse-buy mug bets, and those which actually provide value in the long run.  Remember, it’s the expected value in your bets that makes you a more profitable punter.  You don’t have to right 100% of the time, but picking the right betting categories with the right odds will earn more money than most one-off gamblers.

Value Bets

Ok, so you pretty much should understand what is meant by “value”.  In any business decision, the rewards should measure up to the risks taken. The bigger the risk, the larger the rewards you’d expect?  This makes sense no?

What this means, is that you when you’re making bets in football, you need to pick something with the right value and odds – not just something you think is bound to happen.  For instance, you might swear on your grandmother’s life that Man Utd will thrash Chelsea 3-1.  But with odds of something like 10-1 for a perfect score for instance, this is pretty bad in my opinion.  See the next topic why.

Correct Score Bets are “Mugger’s Bets”

You wouldn’t think it, but the first football betting tip is to learn that correct score bets are for mugs – that is they present bad value for what you’re paying.  Imagine the scenario for instance, where you want to bet on a score for two unpredictable teams, let’s say Bolton vs Fulham.  You might think the game will have 3 goals or less, so you bet on 2-1 Bolton (home win), which gives odds of 7-1.  This isn’t too bad you might think.  However, if you actually can’t the number of scenarios the game could end with 3 goals or less there’s 10!  This basically means you’d mathematically expect odds of 10-1 or greater if you thought the game would have less 3 goals.  This is also assuming the game can only have 3 goals or less, which of course isn’t true!  You can see then, that betting on the correct score commonly pay off in the long run.

However Correct Scores Aren’t Always Muggers Bets!

This is a little contradictory, but there are in fact qualified and intelligent times to make bet on correct scores when football betting.  This is usually when you’re betting on two teams unlikely to score and both have solid defenses.  This would definitely be true of Chelsea in the Avram Grant’s “let’s win the Premier League in 1-0’s” side.  It’s also quite true of Mourinho’s Chelsea, and a few bottom Premier League teams off the top of my head.  In this instance, betting on a result like 0-0 or 1-0 will payoff, because of the likelihood of the result.  On the other hand, betting on a team capable of scoring 4+ goals against opposition is a bad bet unless you’re receiving 20-1 or better on the correct score odds.  Good teams tend to keep clean sheets in their wins also, so remember a 1-0 bet makes far more sense than a 2-1 bet if it’s against weak opposition.

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